One FPS — How to REALLY predict Apple product releases

How to REALLY predict Apple product releases

With all due respect to Marco, I think he’s way off-base with what is clearly a bunch of hate for Apple and the news industry called How to predict Apple product releases:

Let me be absolutely clear on this: Apple speculation is completely theoretical. It’s like the “futurists” in the 1950s who predicted that we’d have flying cars and all-plastic furniture in 1999 (well…). You should expect a very poor success rate on such predictions.

I have no idea what Apple is doing. Nobody does. I have no informants and no connections. I have no more information than you could find on the rumor sites.

See? He flat-out admits it: the rumor sites are actually in the know, and this is why you should listen to them.

Rule #1: Rumors get started for a reason

If people or websites are talking about some hot new product Apple is about to release, you can bet your bottom dollar that somebody somewhere knows something. People aren’t just making this shit up, otherwise they wouldn’t have a website with tens of thousands of Digg visitors.

Rule #2: If the idea is awesome, chances are Apple’s gonna make it

An Apple TV with a DVR. A $299 iNetbook. Apple buying Adobe. What do these three things have in common? They will finally make everyone happy while making Apple a ton of money, which means they’re awesome ideas. Apple is an awesome company—why wouldn’t they be working on obviously awesome stuff like this?

Rule #3: Apple throws darts to pick titles for special events

Who cares if a September event is called “It’s only rock and roll, but we like it?” This is one of the most important, fundamental rules that Marco completely skipped over. Apple doesn’t care what their events are called. In fact, sometimes they deliberately pick misleading titles so they can zig while you zag. Sure, September has been the big iPod event for the last few years, woop-te-doo. Apple could totally still release a headless xMac tower or a revolutionary new iTablet tomorrow and blow the Kindle and netbooks out of the water for the holiday season.

Rule #4: Delays happen, but keep the faith

If an unreleased product doesn’t show at an event, don’t worry, it just got delayed. Steve Jobs probably swooped down from his perch atop Apple like all Batman ‘n shit and dropped an engineer for picking the wrong color for the serial number plate. These are usually small problems that are easy to fix. The product is almost definitely on track for Apple’s next major event, which in this particular case, will most likely be a keynote at CES.

But as long as you keep dreaming, Apple is busting its ass to grant your wishes. That’s what makes them so awesome.